Mark Foley scandal Totally Explained

Everything about The Mark Foley Scandal totally explained

The Mark Foley scandal, which broke in late September 2006, centers on soliciting e-mails and sexually explicit instant messages sent by Mark Foley, a Republican Congressman from Florida, to teenaged boys who had formerly served as congressional pages. The scandal has grown to encompass the response of Republican congressional leaders to previous complaints about Foley's contacts with the pages and inconsistencies in the leaders' public statements. There are also allegations that a second Republican Congressman, Jim Kolbe, had improper conduct with at least two youths, a 16-year old page and a recently graduated page.
   The scandal led to Foley's resignation from Congress on September 29, 2006. It is believed to have contributed to the Republican Party's loss of control over Congress in the November 7, 2006 election, as well as the end of House Speaker Dennis Hastert's leadership of the House Republicans. Kirk Fordham, chief of staff to Rep. Tom Reynolds and former chief of staff for Foley, also resigned as a result of the scandal.
   The questionable conversations, which took place between 1995 and 2005, are under investigation by the FBI and Florida officials for possible criminal violations. The House Ethics Committee is investigating the response of the House Republican leadership and their staff to earlier warnings of Foley's conduct. In early October 2006, two news organizations quoted anonymous former pages saying they'd sexual liaisons with Foley after turning 18 and 21. sponsored by Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-LA). They were the first messages to be made public in the scandal. Among other things, Foley asked for a photo of the page, his age and birthday, and what he wanted for a birthday present. Foley observed that another male page (to whom he'd also written) was "in really great shape... i am just finished riding my bike on a 25 mile journey..." The page forwarded the e-mails to a colleague in Alexander's office, saying "this really freaked me out," and repeating the word "sick" 13 times to describe the photo request. The page asked "if you can, please tell Rodney [Alexander] about this," and in addition, mentioned a female page who had been warned about a Congressman who "hit on" interns.
   ABC News reported on October 5 that in 2002, Foley e-mailed one page with an invitation to stay at the congressman's home in exchange for oral sex. The page, who was 17 years old at the time, declined the offer. The same report stated that he e-mailed another with a request for a photograph of his erect penis. Another former page reports that he saw sexually explicit e-mails sent to one page from his page class of 2001-2002, and learned of "three or four" pages from that class who received similar e-mails.

Instant messages

After the initial story on the e-mails, other pages contacted ABC and the Washington Post, providing transcripts of sexually explicit instant messaging (IM) conversations from 2003 that Foley had with two pages under the age of 18 at the time. The Washington Post reported that it had received its copies of these same IMs from a page who had served on Capitol Hill with the two pages who received them.
Another former page, Tyson Vivyan, has said that he received "sexually suggestive" messages from Foley in 1997, a month after he left the page program.

Sources of messages and chronology

In November 2005, the initial five e-mails were leaked out of Alexander's office, after the recipient (a page whom Alexander sponsored) brought them to the Congressman. According to an editor at the St. Petersburg Times, they received the e-mails from a source in Alexander's office.
   The St. Petersburg Times editors decided the exchange was probably just "friendly chit-chat". Nonetheless, they assigned two reporters to investigate in November 2005. The recipient of the e-mail refused to cooperate with the story, and no other pages they interviewed had complaints about correspondence with Foley. The Times revisited their investigation "more than once", ultimately choosing not to break the story. Ken Silverstein, an editor at Harper's Magazine, said that he received copies of the five e-mails in May 2006 from a "Democratic operative". Silverstein subsequently wrote a story on the e-mails, which was cancelled due to a lack of absolute proof that Foley was anything more than "creepy". He said that his source "was not working in concert with the national Democratic Party" but was "genuinely disgusted" by Foley's behavior. Silverstein himself passed the information to other media organizations after cancelling the story.
   In July 2006, a paid Republican Congressional staffer sent copies of the e-mails to several Washington media organizations through an intermediary. The organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) said it received copies of the e-mails on July 21st and turned them over to the FBI that same day. (See Justice Department investigation, below.)
   In August 2006, ABC News reporter Brian Ross received the initial e-mails from a Republican source. He didn't write a story for over a month because he was working on other stories.
   On September 24, 2006, the e-mails were released by Lane Hudson on his anonymous blog Stop Sex Predators. Hudson was at the time employed by the Human Rights Campaign. When the HRC found out about Hudson's activity during the week of October 25, 2006, it publicly fired him for misusing its resources. At the time of his firing, the Board of Directors of HRC included Jeff Trandahl, who also had prior knowledge and involvement with the issue.
   The political humor blog Wonkette drew readers' attention to the posted e-mails on September 27. The next day, September 28, Ross reported on the e-mails which he'd received in August.

Visits and meetings

On at least two different occasions, one in the summer of 2000 and one in 2002 or 2003, Foley allegedly visited the dormitory where pages live. On the first occasion, he drove up in his BMW automobile during a nighttime "mixer" party. Students came out of the dorm to talk with him and were warned away by an adult supervisor in the page program, who shooed them back inside., and a visit by two pages in 1997 to Foley's Washington condo where they consumed pizza and soda.

Sexual liaisons

Though Foley isn't alleged to have engaged in sexual relations with pages during the time of their service, he allegedly entered, on at least two occasions, into sexual relationships with ex-pages.
   In communications with one of the pages, who has chosen to remain anonymous, Foley appears to emphasize that while he assesses the attractions and orientation of pages, he waits until they've left the program to engage the youth in erotic activities: "I always knew you were a player but I don't fool around with pages." The congressman issued a statement, saying, "I am deeply sorry and I apologize for letting down my family and the people of Florida I've had the privilege to represent." Kirk Fordham, Chief of Staff to Representative and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds of New York, and former Chief of Staff to Foley, said that he was with Foley when ABC confronted him with the explicit IMs. Fordham said that he asked Foley if they were authentic, and that Foley replied, "Probably." According to Newsweek, Foley "knew he was finished." Fordham then visited GOP headquarters to inform Hastert and Reynolds; he returned with a one-sentence resignation letter that Foley signed. A short time later, Foley submitted his resignation to Governor Jeb Bush and left the capital.
   Once the scandal broke in full, Foley had virtually no chance of staying in Congress. Hastert and Reynolds let it be known that if Foley didn't sign the resignation letter, they'd have sought his expulsion from the House. Polls showed him losing badly to his Democratic challenger, businessman Tim Mahoney. Even if Foley had come back to win, it's very unlikely the House would have seated him.
   On October 2, Foley checked himself into a rehabilitation clinic for alcoholism. On October 3 Foley’s lawyer stated, "Mark Foley has never, ever had inappropriate sexual contact with a minor in his life. He is absolutely, positively not a pedophile." He also stated that Foley himself was a victim of sexual assault by an unnamed clergyman as a child, that the inappropriate conversations were the result of a secret alcohol problem and primarily occurred while Foley was intoxicated, and that Foley is gay. Previously, when confronted with speculations that he was gay, Foley labeled them "revolting and unforgivable." However, Foley's homosexuality had been an open secret in Washington for many years. Foley privately identified the priest he alleged had abused him as a child. However, the public revelation of his identity, Anthony Mercieca, a 69-year old Catholic priest now living in Malta, came through the investigative reporting of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.
   Parallel to Foley's disclosure, Mercieca held several interviews in which he described a two-year relationship with Foley from when the youth was a thirteen-year-old altar boy at Sacred Heart Roman Catholic Church in Lake Worth, Florida until he was fifteen. He told the Sarasota Herald-Tribune about a number of intimate occasions that the priest claimed "Foley might perceive as sexually inappropriate," such as "massaging Foley while the boy was naked, skinny-dipping together at a secluded lake in Lake Worth and being naked in the same room on overnight trips." Mercieca hinted at an even more intimate event, which he claimed took place while he was under the influence of tranquilizers and alcohol, and which he couldn't clearly recollect, and that he taught Foley "some wrong things" related to sex, which he didn't specify.
   In a separate AP interview, he recounted that: "We were friends and trusted each other as brothers and loved each other as brothers. It wasn't what you call intercourse...There was no rape or anything...Maybe light touches here or there." And he told a Florida TV station that it wasn't abuse, which is against someone's will: "He seemed to like it, you know? So it was sort of more like a spontaneous thing." The Archdiocese of Miami issued a statement apologizing to Foley for "the hurt he experienced" from the priest's "morally reprehensible" actions, and suspended Mercieca's faculties.
   According to Mercieca, he last saw Foley at a dinner meeting 18 years ago in a restaurant in Fort Worth. When asked whether he'd anything to say to Foley, Mercieca said, "Remember the good times we'd together, you know, and how well we enjoyed each other’s company." He added, "Don’t keep dwelling on this thing, you know?" Mercieca can't be prosecuted for his activities with Foley since the relevant statutes of limitations have expired, and the Palm Beach County state attorney's office "cannot conduct an investigation because Foley has declined to press charges." Mercieca, speaking through his lawyer, has denied the second accusation, claiming that it's "at best as a figment of the imagination and at worst a malicious fabrication." On July 18, 2007, the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Miami settled a lawsuit brought up against it by the former altar boy. The terms of the settlement were not disclosed. The lawsuit had sought more than $10,000,000 in damages.

Other Congressmen

As an apparent result of the Foley scandal, allegations of inappropriate contact with pages have been made against other congressmen.

Jim Kolbe

Two allegations were made against another Republican Congressman, Jim Kolbe. The first to be made public involves a 1996 rafting trip Kolbe took on the Colorado River with two recently graduated, 17-year-old male pages, as well as Kolbe's sister, five of his staffers, and Gary Cummins, the deputy superintendent of the Grand Canyon National Park at the time. An anonymous participant told NBC that he was "creeped out" by the attention Kolbe paid to one of the pages, adding that Kolbe did a lot of "fawning, petting and touching" on the teenager's arms, shoulders and back. The page in question declined to address that statement, telling NBC, "I just don't want to get into this... because I might possibly be considered for a job in the administration." He did say that he'd a "blast" on the trip and didn't report anything improper to his parents or page officials afterwards.
In the second allegation, a page told the FBI and House Clerk's office that he was "uncomfortable with a particular social encounter" including physical contact that occurred in 2001 when he and Kolbe were alone. The page was 16 at the time and didn't report the incident then. which referred the matter to the House Ethics Committee since they don't have jurisdiction over Congressmen.

Unnamed congressman

Congressman Jerry Weller (R-IL) sent the House Page Board and House Ethics Committee a report that a page he sponsored was "inappropriately invited to a social function by another congressman." He declined to make any further details public.

Congress

Other leaders whose roles have been criticized include Reynolds, John Boehner, John Shimkus, Ken Mehlman, and Sue W. Kelly.
Also significant in the scandal is the office of Clerk of the House of Representatives is the Chief Administrative Officer of the United States House of Representatives. The Clerk is responsible for the effective administration of all personnel matters, including those relating to the house pages. The two Clerks of the House during the scandal were Jeff Trandahl and Karen Haas; the latter was elevated to the position from being floor assistant for Hastert after Trandahl resigned on November 18, 2005. and another Alexander staffer, Danielle Savoy, Fordham; Kolbe, and Kolbe's staffer.
No Democratic Congressman or staffers have been shown to have had such knowledge.(Except for the House Democratic Caucus and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.)

1995-1999

Kurt Wolfe, the journalist who first outed Foley in The Advocate in 1996, said that one of the original independent sources he found to corroborate Foley's orientation was an ex-page. An adult by the time of his meeting with Wolfe, he described having been "the recipient of many inappropriate sexual communications from Foley" while a minor. Wolfe contacted Foley's office for comment, and was rebuffed. Nevertheless, he asserts about Foley's staff: "They were notified."

2000-2004

On October 9, The Washington Post reported that in 2000, a former page showed Kolbe messages from Foley that made the page feel uncomfortable. According to The Washington Post, these messages were sexually explicit, a characterization that Kolbe's press secretary denied. The Washington Post reported that Kolbe confronted Foley about the messages. Kolbe's press secretary said that unspecified "corrective action" was taken. though he later softened his description of the warning. Newsweek Magazine reported that in 2002 or 2003, Foley showed up at the pages' dormitory after the 10 P.M. curfew, apparently drunk, and attempted to enter the building. He was reportedly turned away by a security guard. Newsweek stated that Trandahl notified Fordham (then Foley's Chief of Staff and later Congressman Tom Reynolds' chief of staff), and that Fordham in turn contacted Scott B. Palmer, Hastert's chief of staff, describing Foley's behavior generally but not mentioning the incident at the pages' dormitory. This account further stated that Fordham followed up a couple of days later with Palmer, who replied that he'd "informed the Speaker" and "dealt with it" by talking to Foley directly.
Testifying under oath before a House ethics committee panel, Fordham said that months before he left Foley's office in January 2004, he'd told Hastert's office about the conduct by Mark Foley with male teenage pages. Palmer has categorically denied that meeting between him and Fordham ever took place: "What Kirk Fordham says happened didn't happen." However, on October 6 a second congressional staffer corroborated Fordham's version of the events, claiming that in 2003 a meeting took place between Palmer and Foley, specifically to discuss complaints about his behavior towards pages.
Trandahl, testifying to a closed session of the House Ethics Committee, reportedly also confirmed that Hastert's office was notified of Mr. Foley's behavior in 2003. He stated that he regularly updated Hastert's counsel and floor manager, Ted Van Der Meid, about a "problem group of members and staff who spent too much time socializing with pages outside of official duties." One member of the group was Foley.

2005-2006

Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-LA) stated that he learned of the five initial e-mails from Foley to the 16-year old page from Louisiana in the fall of 2005, after a news reporter brought the matter to his attention. Trandahl then met with Shimkus, and Shimkus and Trandahl met privately with Foley, and Shimkus told him to cease contact with the page. The other two congressional representatives on the House Page committee (including the only Democrat) were not informed, and no formal investigative or disciplinary action was taken.
After testifying in closed session before the House Ethics Committee, Rep. Alexander also announced that “There are many people who know what we know, and have known it for a lot longer period of time than we’ve known.” He didn't name names publicly, however.
In the spring of 2006, Rep. Alexander mentioned the case to Boehner, who referred him to Rep. Reynolds (R-NY), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Both Reynolds and Boehner say that they notified Hastert; he says he can't recall that and questions whether it's true. Reynolds said on September 30 that he'd spoken with Hastert about the matter early in 2006 after being approached by Alexander to discuss the matter. According to The Washington Post, "Republican insiders said Reynolds spoke out because he was angry that Hastert appeared willing to let him take the blame for the party leadership's silence." Hastert's office said that Hastert didn't "explicitly recall" that conversation but said he didn't dispute it. Boehner told The Washington Post that he'd learned of the emails in the spring. Boehner initially said that he informed Hastert, and that Hastert assured him "we're taking care of it." After Hastert denied knowledge to the press, Boehner retracted his statement, stating that he couldn't recall the conversation.

House Page Board

A board consisting of three House members and two congressional staffers, chaired by Shimkus, supervises the House page program.
   Although Shimkus was aware of the five initially reported e-mails in 2005, he didn't inform the rest of the board aside from Trandahl. Shimkus said he "was asked to keep this in confidence" because the parents of the page didn't want the incident publicized. The other two representatives on the board, Dale Kildee (D-MI) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) didn't find out about them until the scandal broke in October 2006. Kildee said that he was "very upset" that he hadn't been informed of the e-mails. He said, "I should have been told. The whole House Page Board should have been told." Capito said that she'd have recommended stronger action had she been made aware of the original e-mails.
   There are separate supervisors for the Republican and Democratic pages. Peggy Sampson has supervised Republican pages since 1986, and several former pages say that she warned them about Mark Foley. Wren Ivester is the supervisor of Democratic pages. No Democratic pages have said they were warned about Foley, and several contacted by ABC News said they hadn't been told about him.
   On October 16, 2006, the Board held a conference call to discuss allegations in the Kolbe incident in 1996 (discussed above). and repeated this declaration on October 5. Two other top leaders in the House, Boehner and Reynolds, however, have stated that they told Hastert about the Foley emails in the spring of 2006. Boehner added that Hastert replied that the complaint "had been taken care of", and confirmed his account under oath before the House Ethics Committee. A September 30 statement by the Speaker's office said that Hastert didn't "explicitly recall" the conversation with Reynolds but "has no reason to dispute" it.
   Hastert's office concedes, in its own chronology, that his top staffers Mike Stokke (deputy chief of staff), Ted Van Der Meid (legal counsel) and a lower placed assistant named Tim Kennedy were told about the Foley emails by Rep. Alexander's chief of staff in November of 2005. Palmer replied that "What Kirk Fordham said didn't happen", but on October 6 a second congressional staffer corroborated Fordham's account, claiming that a 2003 meeting took place between Palmer and Foley specifically to discuss complaints about his behavior towards pages. Hastert requested a criminal investigation of the explicit IMs, but not of the earlier, less explicit e-mails exchanged between Foley and the page sponsored by Alexander.
   On October 3, the Washington Times called for Hastert's resignation as Speaker over his handling of the scandal. Prominent conservatives also have called for Hastert's resignation, such as David Bossie, president of Citizens United; conservative columnist Richard Viguerie; and conservative columnist Michael Reagan, son of former President Ronald Reagan. Hastert has rebuffed these calls to resign, arguing he did nothing wrong and is committed to investigating the scandal and leading Congress. Boehner also defended Hastert in a letter to the editor of Washington Times. A conference call on October 2 with about 100 House Republicans had no calls for a resignation.
   On October 5, Hastert accepted responsibility for the scandal but refused to step down. He said, "I haven't done anything wrong" and re-affirmed that he'd only recently learned about any problems involving Foley and the pages: "I learned of this last Friday... I don't know who knew what or when--that's why we've asked for an investigation." Hastert didn't "explicitly recall" that conversation but said he didn't dispute it.
   The question of Reynolds's role in the scandal nearly cost him his seat in the November 2006 election. According to conservative columnist Robert Novak, Reynolds convinced a reluctant Foley to run for re-election even after finding out about his questionable e-mails. Reynolds also contributed $5,000 to Foley's re-election fund, apparently after finding out about his behavior. Indeed, Reynolds won reelection by only four percentage points despite representing a district that had been altered specifically to protect him.
   On October 4, 2006, Fordham, Reynolds's Chief of Staff, resigned after newspapers reported that he'd asked ABC News not to report the text of the sexually explicit instant messages. ABC reported that Fordham had offered to give them an exclusive on the resignation if they withheld the text of the IMs. Fordham had previously served as Foley's Chief of Staff. Fordham told The Associated Press that he'd warned Hastert's staff about Foley in 2003. Hastert's spokesman replied, "What Kirk Fordham said never happened."
   It has been reported that prior to the public scandal, Reynolds, together with Karl Rove, urged Foley to run for reelection in 2006, despite Foley's reluctance.

John Shimkus

Shimkus said "that in late-2005 he learned--through information passed along by Alexander's office--about an e-mail exchange in which Foley asked about the youngster's well-being after Hurricane Katrina and requested a photograph."

Investigations

House Ethics Committee

Late on September 29, 2006, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) offered a resolution to direct the House Ethics Committee to create a subcommittee to investigate Foley and the Republican leadership. Boehner moved to immediately refer Pelosi's resolution to the Ethics Committee without further debate and the House unanimously agreed.
   On October 5, 2006, the House Ethics Committee met and established a subcommittee to investigate the page sex scandal. The House subcommittee members are Reps. Doc Hastings (R-WA), Howard Berman (D-CA), Judy Biggert (R-IL), and Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH). The subcommittee has already sent subpoenas and has appointed Louis Freeh as a special advisor. The committee opened an expansive investigation into the unfolding scandal on 5 October 2006 by approving nearly four dozen subpoenas for witnesses and documents.
   The Ethics Committee has no power over Foley, who is no longer a member of Congress. As a result, its chairman has said it'll focus on the "conduct of House members, officers and staff related to information concerning improper conduct involving members and current and former pages".
   On December 8, 2006, the committee reported the investigation's conclusion, finding Hastert and other Republican leaders negligent, but not in violation of any House rules. The panel didn't recommend any sanctions for their failure to stop Foley. The investigation validated Trandahl's and Fordham's reports and concluded that Hastert's chief of staff first learned of Foley's conduct in 2002 or 2003, and that Hastert's chief counsel had been aware of concerns for nearly a decade.

Justice Department

On October 13, 2006, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that they'd opened a preliminary investigation of the official rafting trip taken in 1996 by Kolbe with two 17-year-old former pages.
   The Justice Department sent a letter on October 4 to the counsel for the House of Representatives, ordering the body to "preserve all records" that might relate to the scandal. An order such as this is usually soon followed with search warrants and subpoenas.
   On July 21, 2006, the director of the organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) received copies of the e-mails from one of her staff members, who had received it two days earlier.
   The resulting Inspector General's report concluded that 1) CREW had received the emails in July and turned them over to the FBI within two days; 2) the FBI's decision not to pursue charges against Foley based on the initial emails didn't constitute misconduct; but 3) the FBI probably should have referred the case to the House Page Board or other authorities based on what they received.

Responses

Mark Foley's actions were almost universally condemned. The actions and inactions of Hastert and other members of the Republican House leadership were widely condemned by Democrats and some Republicans. On September 29, 2006, Rep. Pelosi (D-CA) criticized Republican leaders, who, she said, "have known of the egregious behavior of Congressman Mark Foley, yet were prepared to adjourn [Congress] tonight without an Ethics Committee investigation." DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel noted that Alexander had first gone to Reynolds, who was in charge of political operations, and said, "That's to protect a member [ofCongress], not to protect a child." When Foley's sexually explicit instant messages became public, a few members of the Republican Party condemned his actions. They voted unanimously with House Democrats to refer the matter to the House Ethics Committee for investigation. Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert also demanded a criminal investigation by writing the Attorney General asking for a full investigation both into Foley's actions and into the possibility that earlier clues were not properly acted upon by Congressional officials, representatives, the media, and the FBI.
Some members of the gay community are voicing concerns over media coverage of the Mark Foley scandal, fearing that the scandal would serve as a link between homosexuality and pederasty since Foley only pursued males, while others condemn the media's complicity in permitting Foley to remain closeted. Many Republican candidates have announced that they're either returning contributions from Foley's campaign or contributing any Foley money received in the last several years to charity. The NRCC, however, has opted to keep a $100,000 contribution made to it by Foley in July 2006, after the first, "overly friendly" e-mails had become known to House Republican leaders. Carl Forti, an NRCC spokesman, has said the campaign organization would gladly accept the $2.7 million campaign war chest that Foley controlled upon his resignation, should Foley choose to turn it over. On October 5, 2006, the parents of the former page from Louisiana, who initially complained about the e-mails to Rep. Alexander, issued a public statement. They described their son's actions as courageous, and described him as a hero for reporting the emails. They supported Alexander, calling his conduct "beyond reproach". They complained about media harassment, and asked to be left alone, requesting respect for their privacy.

Political impact

Post-scandal polls and commentary

A Time poll reported that two-thirds of those aware of the scandal believe that the Republican leadership in Congress attempted a cover-up. According to FOX News, an internal Republican poll conducted in the wake of the scandal shows potentially disastrous election results for Congressional Republicans if Hastert remains as Speaker of the House. The unnamed Republican source is quoted as saying "The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker, and the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss." For Democrats to regain control of the House, they'd to post a net gain of 15 seats in the 2006 midterm elections.
   The National Review, a conservative magazine, called the scandal helpful for Democrats campaigning to regain control of one or both houses of Congress, and said it could have a greater impact than the Jack Abramoff scandals since "a GOP pederasty scandal" is thought to resonate more strongly with the public than one involving the purchase of favors.
   On October 3, the Washington Times called for Hastert's resignation as Speaker over his handling of the scandal.
   A Pew Research Center poll released on October 5 indicated no significant change in registered voters' party support; before and after the scandal broke, Democrats had 51 percent support in the upcoming congressional elections, while Republicans had 38 percent support. In later polls, however, Republicans hemorrhaged support; a USA Today/Gallup survey published October 10 showed Democrats enjoying a 23-point advantage over Republicans, with an 11-point gain for Democrats, and a 12-point loss for Republicans, since a poll released on September 17.
   A October 5, 2006 public opinion poll found that 27% of American thought Hastert should remain Speaker, with 43% thinking he should resign from Congress entirely.
   On October 6, political scientist and analyst Stuart Rothenberg wrote that the scandal may have helped to "set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month" in the November elections. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, on October 5, wrote that "the congressional page scandal [had] joined leaked reports of poor progress in Iraq and Bob Woodward's to deliver Bush and Republicans their worst, most catastrophic week of 2006."

Effect in Foley's district

In Florida, State Representative Joe Negron was picked to fill Foley's spot in the November elections. The Democratic nominee for the seat was Tim Mahoney. Florida law prohibited Foley's name from being removed from the ballot at the time of his withdrawal from the race, but Republicans hoped that voters would recognize that a vote for Foley would transfer to Negron as a substitute candidate. Nevertheless, Boehner noted that because of the procedures in Florida, "to vote for this candidate, you've to vote for Mark Foley. How many people are going to hold their nose to do that?" Negron used the slogan, "Punch Foley for Joe," having the double meaning of officially voting for Foley in order to really elect Negron as well as evoking images of physically striking the offending member of Congress. Foley's Republican-held seat was regarded as unlikely to change hands before the scandal broke, but CQPolitics changed its rating of the race from Safe Republican – where it had stood since July – to Leans Democratic in early-October. On Election Day, Mahoney won the seat.

Effect in Reynolds's district

Reynolds, the head of the NRCC, who knew of some Foley e-mails before the scandal became public, released an ad apologizing to his constituents. He was thought to have a safe seat. Shortly before the scandal broke, a SurveyUSA poll found Reynolds' Democratic challenger Jack Davis unexpectedly trailing by only two percentage points (43%-45%),(External Link

) a statistical tie. A subsequent SurveyUSA poll taken a week after the first poll show Davis now leading 50-45,(External Link

) outside of either poll's margin of error. A Zogby telephone poll conducted on October 4-5, after the scandal had been in the news for a week, found Reynolds trailing 33-48.(External Link

) Nevertheless, Reynolds won the race.

Effect on other congressional races

Within a week of the scandal breaking, five candidates ran campaign ads in reaction to the scandal. Democratic House candidates Patty Wetterling in Minnesota's 6th District, Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio's 15th, Maxine Moul in Nebraska's 1st district, and Baron Hill in Indiana's 9th came out with ads connecting their opponents to the Republican leadership and, by association, Mark Foley.

Page program

On October 2, 2006, Representative Ray LaHood (R-IL) called for the page program to be temporarily suspended. He stated that "this is a flawed program. The fact that a member of Congress is sending e-mails to a page and that he can get away with it (shows that) obviously there are problems." Two more Representatives, Jon Porter (R-NV) and Kay Granger (R-TX) also supported LaHood's recommendation to suspend the page program until an outside team could evaluate its security protocol. Hastert announced on October 5, 2006 that he was launching an investigation to evaluate and make improvements to the page program.

Legal issues

Foley, as chair of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, is an expert on law concerning sex with minors. His pursuit of young former pages, in many cases, carefully avoided illegality.

Age of consent

In the United States, 18 years of age is the age of majority (anyone below that age is considered a minor). However, the age of consent for sexual relations can differ from the age of majority, being dictated by statutory rape laws, and varies by state (it is 16 in the District of Columbia). The email that first came to light was sent to a 16-year-old former page in Louisiana, where the age of consent is 17. However, the age of consent is relevant only in cases where there has been physical, sexual contact. Foley hasn't been accused of any such contact with this youth, and has specifically denied sexual contact with any minor through his lawyer. On another occasion he offered a narrower denial of "inappropriate sexual contact with a minor".
The minimum age for House pages is 16. Two former pages have told news organizations that Foley arranged sexual liaisons with them but only after they turned 18 and 21 respectively. One of the pages told the FBI that his contacts with Foley led to two meetings, including a dinner in San Diego in October 2002, when the page was 17. After dinner, the page said, Foley invited him back to his hotel room and "touched his leg", but nothing untoward happened beyond that in a 20 minute visit. In addition, an individual under the age of 21 is prohibited in the District of Columbia from consuming alcoholic beverages.

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